Tom's Film Hub

It’s been two weeks since the 97th Academy Awards, which means it’s time to start looking ahead to next year’s race. Here are my predictions for the nominees in all the major above-the-line categories.

Bold for Winners

Best Picture

Avatar: Fire and Ash (Dir. James Cameron)

• They will stop eventually nominating Avatar movies for Best Picture, right? Maybe someday, but not this year. Around two blockbusters get into the final ten every year, and outside of Wicked, there isn’t anything else that seems close. It will likely be the year’s highest-grossing film and continue to impress with its technological improvements.

After the Hunt (Dir. Luca Guadagnino)

• It feels like a mistake to continue to predict Luca Guadagnino films for awards after two of his films were shut out in 2024 but his newest entry is slotted for a fall release, has a strong cast led by Oscar winner Julia Roberts and Andrew Garfield, and is pushed by Amazon who have gotten a BP nominee the last two years.

Deliver Me from Nowhere(Dir. Scott Cooper)

• After the success of A Complete Unknown and Elvis the academy has shown no signs of fatigue with music biopics so here comes the Boss. Michael (Dir. Antoine Fuqua) could also fit that slot but with the the amount of controversy that will be coming along with it, lets stick with the safer musical figure in Springsteen at the moment.

Frankenstein (Dir. Guillermo Del Toro)

• Netflix plus a fall release—hard to see Guillermo’s hot streak with the Oscars ending now.

Hamnet (Dir. Chloe Zhao)

• A film based on a highly acclaimed book about William Shakespeare directed by an Oscar win slated to come out in November; lock it in.

The History of Sound (Dir. Oliver Hermanus)

• Cannes premiers continue to grow in dominance at the Oscars, 2-4 films have been nominated in recent years. The History of Sound is essentially a placeholder for whatever films rise from the Cannes pack but it could be the one. A period piece starring two of the biggest risers in Hollywood today, Josh O’Conner and Paul Mescal.

Marty Supreme (Dir. Josh Safdie)

• A24 has gotten a best picture nominee four out of the last five years. They are putting a lot of resources into Marty Supreme (including a 70 million budget their highest to date) so unless its a critical disappointment it will be their awards push this year.

One Battle After Another (Dir. Paul Thomas Anderson)

• Early test screenings have been mixed but PTA is one of the most respected filmmakers working today, so unless its truly despised (Blitz or Babylon) it can make the final ten.

Sentimental Value (Dir. Joachim Trier)

• The 2nd likely Cannes premier. Trier made noise in 2021 with The Worst Person in the World, and Sentimental Value sees him reuniting with Renata Reinsve. If it has acclaim and can take a top award, it makes a lot of sense it can have an awards run. Helps that it will be distributed by Neon who just had some success with another Cannes premiere, Anora.

Wicked: For Good (Dir. Jon M. Chu)

• The biggest lock in the field. Unless it is a shocking step down from part 1 it will comfortably get back into best picture. The bigger question is how many wins it can get this time around.

Alternatives: Bugonia (Dir. Yorgos Lanthimos), Jay Kelly (Dir. Noah Baumbach), Die My Love (Lyne Ramsey), The Ballad of the Small Player (Dir. Edward Berger), Highest 2 Lowest (Spike Lee)

Best Director

Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value)

• Since 2018 (excluding 2020, when Cannes was canceled), at least one film that debuted at the festival has landed a Best Director nomination. If Sentimental Value makes a splash, Trier could keep that trend alive.

Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another)

• A three-time nominee, PTA is already an Academy favorite. One Battle After Another is shaping up to be his biggest project yet, making a Best Director nomination highly likely.

Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme)

• Every year A24 has had a Best Picture nominee, they’ve also secured a Best Director nod. If Marty Supreme is a major contender, Safdie should be in the mix. For the win, recently the academy has liked awarding indie filmmakers (Sean Baker, The Daniels, Chloe Zhao) and Safdie fits that mold.

Chloe Zhao (Hamnet)

• A past winner, Zhao is directing what is expected to be a top-tier contender. If Hamnet becomes a Best Picture frontrunner, she seems like a safe bet.

Guillermo Del Toro (Frankenstein)

• The final spot is tough to call, but Frankenstein has the potential for double-digit nominations. Del Toro is one of the most beloved filmmakers working today, if Frankenstein delivers, this could be the year he returns to the race.

Alternatives: Luca Guadagnino (After the Hunt), Jon M Chu (Wicked: For Good), Scott Cooper (Deliver Me From Nowhere), Lynne Ramsey (Die, My Love)

Best Actor

Timothée Chalemet(Marty Supreme)

• In Josh Safdie’s last two films Good Time (2017) and Uncut Gems (2019) Robert Pattison and Adam Sandler gave performances that ranked among the years best. I imagine pairing with a performer to the caliber of Timothée will have a similair outcome. Timothée also just proved he can run a campaign and wants to win.

Jeremy Allen White (Deliver Me from Nowhere)

• Voters can’t resist a music biopic.

Oscar Isaac (Frankenstein)

• It’s shocking that Isaac has never been nominated for an Oscar. If Frankenstein lands a Best Picture nomination, it’s easy to see the narrative forming for him to finally break into the Best Actor race.

Paul Mescal (The History of Sound)

• If The History of Sound makes it into Best Picture, Mescal’s nomination feels like a natural extension. Given his recent acclaim (Aftersun, All of Us Strangers), he’s one of the Academy’s rising favorites.

Denzel Washington (Highest 2 Lowest)

• He was just left out for Gladiator II but he’s still Denzel and his some of his career best has been with director Spike Lee.

Alternatives: Leonardo Dicaprio (One Battle After Another), Jaafar Jackson (Michael), Dwayne Johnson (The Smashing Machine), Jesse Plemmons (Bugonia), Matthew McConaughey (The Lost Bus)

Best Actress

Jessie Buckley (Hamnet)

• Playing Agnes Shakespeare, a grieving mother, Buckley has a role that feels undeniable.

Amanda Seyfried (Ann Lee)

• Ann Lee is a small film, but it’s a period piece set for a fall release. With co-writing and co-producing credits from Brady Corbet, plus Seyfried in the titular role, this could be a stealth contender.

Julia Roberts (After the Hunt)

• She could be this year’s Angelina Jolie (Maria), but with Luca Guadagnino at the helm, Roberts is almost guaranteed to deliver a fantastic performance. That alone makes her a solid bet for now

Renata Reinsve (Sentimental Value)

• Reinsve missed out on a nomination in 2021 for The Worst Person in the World, but since then, she’s gained stronger Hollywood recognition.

Cynthia Erivo (Wicked: For Good)

• Only six actors have been nominated multiple times for playing the same character (Bing Crosby, Paul Newman, Al Pacino, Peter O’Toole, Cate Blanchett, and Sylvester Stallone). While she could miss, the quick release of Wicked: For Good after Part One keeps the momentum high, and a fall release positions her well.

Alternatives: Emma Stone (Bugonia), Jennifer Lawrence (Die, My Love), Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Olivia Colman (Roses), Anne Hathaway (Mother Mary)

Best Supporting Actor

Jeremy Strong (Deliver Me From Nowhere)

• Succession alum going back-to-back. This past season showed there is a lot of love for Strong and being in a best picture film could very likely result in his first win.

Stellan Skarsgard (Sentimental Value)

• The 73 year old Skarsgard has shockingly never been nominated. If Sentimental Value is in best picture the Academy will not pass up the chance to recognize him if (as Isabella Rossellini just showed us) his role is only a couple of scenes.

Andrew Garfield (After the Hunt)

• With After the Hunt expected to be a major contender, Garfield could easily ride the film’s momentum into the supporting lineup.

Colman Domingo (Michael)

• The complicated charater that is Joe Jackson will be a role that Domingo could easily make one of the years best. Even if Michael isnt in best picture, Domingo feels like safe bet.

Paul Mescal (Hamnet)

• This could end up being a lead role but knowing that Hamnet revolves around Jessie Buckleys character I’ll risk that Mescal is pushed in supporting. Playing William Shakespeare should make this an easy nomination.

Alternatives: Sean Penn (One Battle After Another), Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly), Josh O’Connor (The History of Sound), Jonathan Bailey (Wicked: For Good), Robert Pattison (Die My Love)

Best Supporting Actress

Ariane Grande (Wicked: For Good)

• Could Wicked really go home empty-handed above the line after back-to-back Best Picture nominations? Best picture is a tough sell so Grande wins as a consiliaton prize.

Emily Watson (Hamnet)

• While it’s still unclear who Watson will be playing, Hamnet is shaping up to be an actor’s showcase, making the previous two time nominee a strong contender.

Ayo Edebiri (After the Hunt)

• Edebiri continues to cement herself as one of Hollywood’s premier young actors. If After the Hunt lands a Best Picture nomination, her inclusion in the Supporting Actress race feels like a natural progression.

Emily Blunt (The Smashing Machine)

• Lone acting nominations can be tough, but Blunt has a meaty role as Dawn Staples, the wife of Dwayne Johnson’s Mark Kerr. The Academy loves recognizing wives of complicated figures (just look at what Blunt was nominated for two years ago).

Regina Hall (One Battle After Another)

• Hall has proven she’s capable of delivering nomination-worthy performances. Teaming up with Paul Thomas Anderson could finally land her academy recognition.

Alternatives: Gwyneth Paltrow (Marty Supreme), Mia Goth (Frankenstein), Tilda Swinton (The Battle of a Small Player), Thomasin McKenzie (Ann Lee), Jennifer Lopez (Kiss of the Spider Woman)

Best Original Screenplay

Sentimental Value (Written by Joachim Trier, Eskil Voght)

After the Hunt (Written by Nora Garrett)

Marty Supreme (Written by Josh Safdie, Ronald Bronstein)

The Enterinment System is Down (Written by Ruben Ostlund)

Jay Kelly (Written by Emily Mortimer, Noah Baumbach)

Alternatives: Sorry Baby (Written by Eva Victor), The Smashing Machine (Written by Benny Safdie), Materialists (Written by Celine Song), Ann Lee (Written by Mona Fastvold, Brady Corbet),

Best Adapted Screenplay

One Battle After Another (Written by Paul Thomas Anderson)

Hamnet (Written by Chloe Zhao, Maggie O’Farrell)

The History of Sound (Written by Oliver Hermanus, Ben Shattuck)

Bugonia (Written by Will Tracy)

Frankenstein (Written by Guillermo Del Toro)

Alternatives: Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (Written by Rian Johnson), Wicked: For Good (Written by Winne Holzman, Dana Fox), The Ballad of a Small Player (Written by Rowan Joffe), The Life of Chuck (Written by Mike Flanagan), Roses (Written by Tony McNamara)